Build to saturation and full revenue potential
Early forecasts by analysts predicted legal online gambling in the United States would take roughly 2-3 years to reach full market maturity.
The markets were supposed to start relatively slow and steadily build to saturation and full revenue potential.
But something unexpected happened on the way to market maturity: The markets in all three U.S. states with legal online gaming reached revenue peaks within six months of launch and have been declining ever since.
Possible explanations for the prematurity
There are a few explanations worth entertaining:
The market potential for intrastate online gaming is much lower than initially forecast, and the markets have already reached their peak;
External forces (payment processing, regulatory restrictions, geolocation) have been more off-putting than anticipated and are having an increasingly regressive effect on the industry;
The dynamics of modern poker (highly skilled players with many tools at their disposal and a reduced level of casual interest in the game) make it difficult for player acquisition rates to keep pace with attrition rates.
If it was merely a case of early forecasts misjudging the market size, one would expect to have seen revenue numbers plateau at some point.
Instead, all three states have experienced declining revenue following their early peaks, which seems to indicate that the culprit is a combination of factors 2 and 3 mentioned above.